Crypto PAC Spending Surges in Texas Runoffs, as Prediction Markets Favor Challengers

Two Texas Congressional candidates supported by millions of dollars in spending from interest groups aligned with the cryptocurrency industry are headed for runoffs this week in races for the US Senate and House of Representatives.

On Tuesday, Democratic voters in Texas’ 18th congressional district will decide between incumbent Al Green and challenger Christian Menefee to run in November’s general election. Statewide, voters will choose between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn for the Republican primary for US Senate.

Both Tuesday races are runoffs after none of the candidates failed to secure a majority in Texas’ March primaries. The crypto industry, through spending on media by political action committees (PACs), has stakes in both races, which could influence policy and the makeup of Congress going into 2027.

As of Sunday, Protect Progress, affiliated with the Ripple- and Coinbase-backed Fairshake PAC, reported spending $5 million to support Menefee over Green. The PAC spent $2.8 million on ads opposing Green. Menefee also has the endorsement of the Blockchain Leadership Fund, a committee backed by Anchorage Digital and Chainlink Labs, though it had not reported any expenditures as of Monday.

Source: US Federal Election Commission

The outcome of the primaries could influence who will ultimately win Texas’ 18th district and one of the state’s two Senate seats in the November general election, potentially affecting which political party controls Congress in 2027. Under a Republican majority, lawmakers have passed key pieces of legislation supported by the crypto industry, including the stablecoin GENIUS Act.

At least one of the ads funded by Protect Progress to support Menefee did not mention crypto or blockchain, but rather Green’s opposition to US President Donald Trump. Bill King, a former opinion writer for the Houston Chronicle, said in a local FOX26 segment that aired on Sunday:

“I saw 12 television commercials yesterday paid for by the Protect Progress PAC […] and that same group of people are the ones that are primarily funding Trump.”

Related: Texas Lt. Gov. calls for study of crypto, prediction markets  

The Fellowship PAC, funded by Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage, reported spending $500,000 to support Paxton over Cornyn for the US Senate seat. The expenditure came about 24 hours after Trump endorsed Paxton, saying that Cornyn had been “very late in backing” him as a Republican candidate for president.

Prediction markets heavily favor Paxton and Menefee

The Kalshi prediction market gave its users 91% and 96% chances on event contracts favoring Menefee over Green and Paxton over Cornyn, respectively.

Source: Kalshi

The platform has consistently provided event contracts favoring the Democratic candidate since February, while Paxton’s odds surged above 90% for the first time after Trump’s endorsement on Tuesday, and stood at almost 96%, at last look on Monday. Bets on that race topped more than $16 million in total volume.

Rival predictions market platform Polymarket gave both candidates similar chances in Tuesday’s runoffs.

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