PCE, jobless claims and housing data test Fed cut hopes: Crypto Week Ahead

The coming week appears to be macro-led, with U.S. economic data carrying the main calendar risk. Inflation, growth, jobless claims and housing numbers all land before the open, giving markets insight on whether the Fed has room to cut rates.

Prediction markets and the CME’s FedWatch tool currently point to rates remaining unchanged in June’s meeting.

The data comes amid the ongoing Middle East war, which keeps oil prices and inflation risk in focus. Any move higher in energy costs could make softer inflation harder to sustain and weigh on risk assets.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • May 26–June 1: Kevin Warsh officially begins his first week as Federal Reserve Chair following his confirmation.
• Macro
  • May 26, 08:00 a.m.: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY for March est. 1.1% (Prev. 0.9%)
  • May 26, 08:00 a.m.: U.S. House Price Index YoY for March est. 1.8% (Prev. 1.7%)
  • May 26, 09:00 a.m.: U.S. CB Consumer Confidence for May est. 92 (Prev. 92.8)
  • May 26, 08:30 p.m.: Australia Consumer Price Index YoY for April est. 4.4% (Prev. 4.6%)
  • May 27, 08:00 p.m.: Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision (Prev. 2.5%)
  • May 28, 04:00 a.m.: Eurozone Economic Sentiment for May est. 92 (Prev. 93)
  • May 28, 07:30 a.m.: U.S. PCE Price Index YoY for April (Prev. 3.5%); Core PCE (Prev. 3.2%)
  • May 28, 07:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending May 23 est. 212K (Prev. 209K)
  • May 28, 08:00 a.m.: South Africa Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision est. 7.0% (Prev. 6.75%)
  • May 28, 09:00 a.m.: U.S. New Home Sales for April est. 0.67M (Prev. 0.682M)
  • May 28, 03:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed Balance Sheet for period ending May 27 (Prev. $6.713T)
  • May 28, 06:30 p.m.: Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index YoY Prel for May (Prev. 1.5%)
  • May 29, 07:30 a.m.: Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized for Q1 (Prev. -0.6%); QoQ (Prev. -0.2%)
  • May 29, 08:45 a.m.: U.S. Chicago PMI for May est. 49.5 (Prev. 49.2)
  • May 30, 08:30 p.m.: China NBS Manufacturing PMI for May est. 50.5 (Prev. 50.3)
• Earnings

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Compound DAO is voting on a proposal to update Compound III supply caps for USDC, USDT, and WETH across Optimism, Polygon, and Unichain. Voting ends on May 25.
  • Aave DAO is voting on a proposal to establish a 3-of-4 rewards operations multisig to manage third-party incentive funding for growth campaigns. Voting ends on May 25.
  • Instadapp DAO is voting on a proposal to rebalance wstUSR vaults, withdraw 750,000 FLUID to fund rewards, configure PST launch limits, and consolidate InstaConnectorsV2 administrative controls to the Team Multisig. Voting ends on May 26.
  • Bancor DAO is voting on a proposal to increase the vortex MaxSaleAmount parameter from 100 to 100,000 for the TAC and IOTA EVM blockchains. Voting ends on May 27.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on an amended proposal to transfer 30,765.66 frozen ETH, tied to the rsETH incident, to an Aave LLC-controlled wallet. Voting ends on May 29.
  • Unlock DAO is voting on a proposal to process the May constant payment roll, compensating contributors David Moderator, Ceci Sakura, and Trigs for their roles. Voting ends on May 30.
  • Uniswap DAO is voting on proposals to expand protocol fee infrastructure to BNB Chain, Polygon, and Celo, and to recall 12.5M delegated UNI from the Franchiser system to the Governance Timelock. Voting ends on May 30.
• Unlocks
  • May 26: Plasma (XPL) to unlock 3.38% of its circulating supply worth $7.39 million.
  • May 26: Huma Finance (HUMA) to unlock 20.04% of its circulating supply worth $11.76 million
  • May 29: Grass (GRASS) to unlock 3.55% of its circulating supply worth $11.29 million.
  • May 30: Falcon Finance (FF) to unlock 4.06% of its circulating supply worth $8.26 million.
  • June 1: EigenCloud (EIGEN) to unlock 4.99% of its circulating supply worth $8.48 million.
• Token Launches