Why Populism Leads to Decline

Today’s guest is Johan Norberg, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and the author of Peak Human: What We Can Learn From the Rise and Fall of Golden Ages.

He talks with Nick Gillespie about the historical patterns behind flourishing civilizations, from the Roman Republic to modern America. Norberg argues that societies thrive when they remain open to trade, immigration, experimentation, and new ideas, but begin to decay when fear and nostalgia push them toward protectionism, centralization, and tribal politics.

They also discuss the resurgence of populism in the United States and Europe, why tariffs and anti-globalization politics keep returning throughout history, and whether America is becoming more risk-averse and nativist. Norberg explains why he believes optimism and innovation can still win, explores the promise of artificial intelligence, and reflects on whether China is entering a new golden age or repeating the mistakes that led past civilizations into decline.

0:00—Why open societies thrive

3:07—The Roman Republic

10:05—America as a creedal nation

11:57—The rise of nativism

16:15—The dangers of nostalgia

20:31—What sparks renaissance?

26:40—Are older societies more risk averse?

28:33—Populism and Viktor Orbán’s defeat

32:04—Left-wing populism

34:10—Javier Milei

35:42—Tariffs and free trade

40:28—Is China in a golden age?