Bitcoin Model Projects BTC to Reach $255K ‘Conservative’ Target in 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) is down roughly 40% from its October 2025 record high, but a long-term valuation model suggests the cryptocurrency could erase the entire decline and rally to as high as $255,000 by year-end.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin Decay Channel puts BTC’s conservative year-end range at $90,000–$255,000, with its 2027 range extending to $128,000–$308,000.
• Bearish HODL Waves suggest a possible higher bottom in the $65,900–$70,500 range.

Bitcoin model puts BTC’s year-end target in the $90,000–$255,000 range

The Bitcoin Decay Channel is a logarithmic price model that tracks BTC’s long-term uptrend while adjusting for smaller gains in each new cycle.

The cryptocurrency’s major tops in 2013, 2017 and 2021 formed near the model’s upper valuation bands, while bear-market lows repeatedly moved back toward its lower support zone.

BTC/USD price performance to date. Source: Sminston/TradingView

Bitcoin’s latest rebound also began near the lower end of the Decay Channel in March-April, showing that buyers stepped in around a zone the model has historically treated as long-term support, or bottom.

That keeps the bullish case alive, according to analyst Sminston.

“Bitcoin Decay Channel gives a pretty reasonable range—conservative case—of $90k–$255k, by the end of this year. $128k – $308k for end of ’27,” he said in a Wednesday post, adding:

“For comparison, Bitcoin was $43k in December 2023.”

Sminston’s $90,000–$255,000 Bitcoin target range fits multiple predictions calling for BTC to reach a new all-time high in 2026.

Earlier, Bernstein analysts maintained a $150,000 Bitcoin target for 2026, while pushing their $200,000 peak forecast into 2027, citing a longer institutional adoption cycle led by BTC ETFs and public companies.

Related: Bitcoin price history suggests 77% odds of new all-time high within a year

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expected Bitcoin to reclaim $126,000 this year, citing US war spending in Iran, AI infrastructure demand and the resulting pressure for more fiat liquidity.

Bear flag and other indicators hint at persistent BTC sell-off risks

Bitcoin continues facing selloff warnings from a slew of bearish indicators, including a multi-month bear flag.

A bear flag typically resolves when the price drops by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. BTC risks plunging under $56,000, down about 30% from current prices, if the classic breakdown setup plays out as intended.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Onchain data suggests Bitcoin may not need to fall as far as the bear-flag target.

The Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator, which tracks how long BTC remains unmoved in wallets, suggests a possible bottom in the $65,900–$70,500 range if the weakness continues.

Bitcoin HODL wave indicator. Source: CryptoQuant 

In a Tuesday post, CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom said a stronger long-term holder base may help BTC form a higher, slower bottom this cycle, with $70,500 as the key level to hold.