Morning Minute: Bitcoin Passes $78k as Trump Extends Ceasefire Indefinitely

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes or less, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.

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Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors rally as Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely; BTC +2% at $78.3k
• Coinbase quantum report says ETH and SOL more at risk than Bitcoin
• Kalshi and Polymarket both tease perps launches on same day
• New York’s AG sued Coinbase and Gemini over their prediction market products
• USD AI’s CHIP token debuts and soars to $800M fdv

📈 Bitcoin Hits 11-Week High as Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire Indefinitely

Bitcoin climbed above $78,000 Wednesday morning, its highest level in 11 weeks, after President Trump announced he would extend the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, reversing his earlier statement that it would expire Wednesday.

Trump cited Tehran’s government as “seriously fractured,” and said the extension would remain in place until Iran’s leadership submits a “unified proposal” to end the war. The announcement came after Iran refused to send negotiators to a second round of talks in Islamabad and reports surfaced that Vice President Vance’s planned trip to Pakistan had been put on hold.

Markets reacted quickly. BTC was up roughly 2.2% over 24 hours and 5% on the week by Wednesday morning, with short sellers caught on the wrong side – approximately $240 million in leveraged shorts were liquidated. ETH was up 3% to $2,390 on a solid day of ETF inflows ($43M). Stock futures are opening green as well.

On-chain signals are turning constructive for the first time in months. Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric turned positive for the first time since early January, which analysts read as confirmation the bearish trend has ended. And whales are apparently accumulating at the fastest pace since July 2025.

Strong momentum starting to build for crypto’s flagship asset…

🏛️ Warsh Faces Senate Over Crypto Holdings, Fed Independence

Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday for his confirmation hearing as Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair.

The hearing covered three main areas: his relationship with Trump on interest rates, his broader monetary policy views, and his financial disclosures (which include stakes in Solana, Polymarket, Tenderly, and other crypto and DeFi funds).

• On rates, Warsh said Trump “never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision in any of our discussions, nor would I ever agree to do so.” He pushed back on suggestions he would simply cut rates on demand, calling himself an “independent actor” and saying he would “absolutely not” serve as anyone’s political instrument.
• On inflation, he said the trajectory is “improving, but there’s more work to do.” He wants a smaller Fed balance sheet, less reliance on quantitative easing, and fewer post-FOMC press conferences – noting that “truth-seeking is more important than repetition.”

Markets didn’t love it. The hawkish undertone sent crypto stocks lower. COIN fell 6%, HOOD 4.5%. BTC slid toward $75K.

But 21Shares research strategist Matt Mena argued the read may be too short-term. Warsh has spent years publicly arguing the Fed keeps rates too high based on lagging data, and his direct exposure to digital assets — he views bitcoin as “the new gold for people under 40” — makes him the most crypto-friendly Fed Chair nominee in history.

If he eases in H2 2026, analysts say that the liquidity environment could push BTC back toward $100K.

⚛️ Coinbase: Proof-of-Stake Has a Quantum Problem Bitcoin Doesn’t

Coinbase’s Independent Advisory Board published a quantum risk report Tuesday with a finding that’s getting less attention than BIP-361 but arguably matters more. And the concern impacts Ethereum and Solana the most.

Proof-of-stake chains like Ethereum and Solana use cryptographic signatures to secure consensus. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could break those signature schemes.

Unlike Bitcoin, where the quantum risk is primarily about exposed wallet public keys, PoS chains face an additional attack surface: the core consensus mechanism itself. Compromise one-third of Ethereum validators and the network can’t finalize transactions. Two-thirds and an attacker can rewrite chain history.

Coinbase’s board said plainly: “the challenge for proof-of-stake isn’t just upgrading wallets; parts of the core consensus mechanism itself may need to be redesigned.” No current quantum computer can do this, yet. But the “harvest now, decrypt later” threat means the planning window is now, not when Q-Day arrives.

📊 Kalshi and Polymarket Launch Perps

Kalshi announced on Tuesday that it’s planning to launch perpetual futures across crypto and other assets. By afternoon, Polymarket announced the same, saying “We’ve priced the future – now you can actually trade it.”

Incredible lockstep between these 2 prediction market giants, once again (even their announcement hype videos looked the same).

Kalshi’s launch is codenamed “Timeless,” goes live April 27 in New York, and starts with BTC perpetuals using USD as collateral. Kalshi’s edge here is leveraging its CFTC licenses and a margin trading approval secured last month.

Polymarket’s early-access waitlist is live at polymarket.com/perps, and they’re teasing perps across assets like BTC, NVDA, and gold with up to 10x leverage.

Notably, this comes at a time when the CME and Hyperliquid are leaning into launching prediction markets. It appears the prediction markets are fighting back…

🏴‍☠️ Scammers Are Charging Bitcoin for Hormuz Safe Passage

Who had crypto getting tied up in a Strait of Hormuz scam on their bingo card?

Greek maritime risk firm MARISKS warned Monday that unknown actors posing as Iranian authorities have been contacting shipping companies stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, demanding Bitcoin or USDT in exchange for “transit clearance.”

The fraudulent messages told ships that Iranian Security Services will assess your eligibility, then pay the fee in BTC or USDT, and your vessel can transit at a pre-agreed time.

MARISKS said it believes at least one vessel paid the fraudulent fee—and then was fired on while attempting to transit anyway. The scam mirrors a real policy that Iran proposed back in March, that they’d charge BTC/USDT transit tolls of roughly $1 per barrel.

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are very green after Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely; BTC +2% at $78.3k; ETH +3% at $2,390; SOL +3% at $88; HYPE flat at $41
• PENGU (+11%), M (+6%), and SKY (+5%) led top movers
• Oil +4% at $90; Gold -1% at $4,760
• Stock futures are green again, up 0.5%
• A four-star admiral and head of US Indo-Pacific Command told the Senate on Tuesday that Bitcoin has significant potential as a national security asset
• Tron founder Justin Sun filed a federal lawsuit against World Liberty Financial in California court Tuesday, alleging the Trump-backed project froze roughly $776 million worth of his WLFI tokens, stripped his voting rights, and threatened to burn his holdings after he declined to keep investing
• New York AG Letitia James sued Coinbase and Gemini Tuesday over their prediction market products, calling them illegal gambling operations under state law
• DoorDash will pay its delivery workers in stablecoins across 40+ countries using Stripe and Paradigm’s Tempo blockchain, which launched its public mainnet in March
• Jefferies analyst Andrew Moss warned Tuesday that the $293M Kelp DAO exploit may prompt Wall Street firms to slow or pause their blockchain and tokenization plans as they reassess infrastructure risk

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders were green on the day; DOGE +3%, SHIB +2%, PEPE +3%, TRUMP +4%, BONK +5%, PENGU +11%, SPX +10%, FARTCOIN +2%
• MAGA (+130%), Peace (+30%), Spike (+30%), and Cards (+30%) led notable movers
• Meteora’s MET token jumped 30% to $100M

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• USD AI launched its CHIP token, which soared to $800M fdv in its debut
• AAVE has now seen $15B in outflows since the KelpDAO exploit
• MegaETH confirmed the 3 more apps are launching this week, meaning 9 of the 10 required to launch per their KPIs have launched (TGE coming after the 10th)

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were very green with Bored Apes leading the weay; Punks +5% at 28.1 ETH, Pudgy +5% at 4.46 ETH, BAYC +16% at 9.14 ETH; Hypurr’s even at 386 HYPE
• BAKC (+16%) and MAYC (+9%) led notable movers