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The CFTC is investigating trades that took place before the US delayed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure on March 23 and agreed to a ceasefire with Iran on April 7.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reportedly investigating suspicious oil trades that were placed ahead of certain announcements made by the Trump administration relating to the Iran war.
According to a Bloomberg report on Wednesday, the CFTC’s probe focuses on trading activity on CME Group’s NYMEX and the Intercontinental Exchange’s futures platforms.
The regulator is also requesting “Tag 50” identity data from exchanges to assist with the investigation. Tag 50 data is widely used for auditing and regulatory compliance checks.
The investigation into the futures trading platforms comes in parallel with the rising scrutiny of insider trading in prediction markets.
Bloomberg said the CFTC is reviewing at least two instances over a two-week period in which oil trading volumes surged shortly before the Trump administration made announcements related to the Iran war.
The first of those occurred on March 23, when billions of dollars in futures traded about 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump postponed plans to strike Iranian energy infrastructure.
The second instance occurred around two weeks later, on April 7, when Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on Iran, Bloomberg said.
The trading spikes contributed to falling oil prices and rising equity prices.
“There’s enormous appetite to pursue cases like this,” said Brian Young, a partner at law firm Jones Day who previously served as director of the CFTC’s enforcement division.
“After all, prices at the pump closely correlate to oil futures contracts, so we’re talking about American pocketbooks at stake here.”
Action to stop insiders in prediction markets
On March 31, the CFTC’s current enforcement director, David Miller, warned that they are keeping a close eye on prediction market insider traders and that they will face action when caught.
“There’s a myth in mainstream media and social media that insider trading doesn’t apply in the prediction markets … That is wrong.”
Related: Kalshi to create ‘portal for parents‘ on prediction markets: Report
Mounting pressure from Democratic lawmakers on prediction markets has also seen both Kalshi and Polymarket introducing new rules to stamp out insider trading.
The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 was also introduced in late March to curb insider trading by government officials.
Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?
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