What next as bitcoin (BTC) fails to break $73,000 for the third time since ceasefire

Bitcoin pulled back to $71,843 on Friday after a third attempt to breach $73,000 was met with selling on Thursday, a level that has now rejected the price on every rally since the Iran conflict began in late February.

The retreat is modest. Bitcoin is up 7.9% on the week, its strongest weekly performance of the war so far, holding above the 50-day moving average which has turned upward for the first time since the conflict started. Ether held at $2,189, up 6.6% on the week. Solana’s SOL gained 5.1% to $83.09. XRP added 2.8% to $1.34. Dogecoin climbed 2.4% to $0.092. The entire top 10 is green on the weekly chart for the first time in over a month.

But $73,000 is seemingly a wall. The level has capped bitcoin three times since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday — each attempt producing a rally that faded within hours. The pattern is identical to the pre-ceasefire range, just shifted higher. Instead of grinding between $65,000 and $73,000, bitcoin is now grinding between $70,000 and $73,000.

“We will need to wait for the price to rise above $75,000 before we can speak of the market entering an active bullish phase,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s chief market analyst, in a note to CoinDesk. He added that bitcoin remains above the 50-day moving average, reinforcing short-term bullish sentiment, but flagged the repeated rejection at $73,000 as the barrier that needs to break.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz set the bar higher, saying the key conditions for bitcoin to resume its uptrend are consolidation above $74,000 followed by a break above $80,000. “Breaking through these levels could trigger a new wave of optimism and restore the uptrend,” he said.

The ceasefire that triggered Tuesday’s rally is already fraying. Iran accused the U.S. of breaching three clauses of the agreement.

The Strait of Hormuz remains only partially reopened with “technical limitations.” Oil rebounded from its 15% single-day crash to trade back above $97.

Ether’s setup is similarly range-bound. The token pulled back 4% from its Wednesday peak to $2,189, which Kuptsikevich described as market noise within a $2,000 to $2,400 consolidation zone.

“A breakout beyond this calm consolidation zone would signal the start of a directional move,” he said.

Outside of majors, Algorand dropped 11.4%, Aptos fell 6.1%, and Polkadot lost 6.1%, marking an altcoin divergence that typically appears when traders are rotating rather than entering fresh capital.

The Fear and Greed Index climbed out of single digits for the first time in over a month, meanwhile.

If the ceasefire survives through the weekend and the Strait opens further, $73,000 gets its fourth test with momentum behind it. However, Tehran’s grievances escalate or Trump’s rhetoric shifts, the pullback toward $68,000 to $70,000 is the path of least resistance.