Potential Insiders Made $600K Predicting US/Iran Ceasefire on Polymarket: Bubblemaps

A group of suspected insiders scored big on Polymarket on Tuesday, profiting more than $600,000 in combined trading contracts related to the U.S. and Iran ceasefire, according to on-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps. 

Accounts belonging to the cluster, a trio of which were active in the ceasefire markets, profited even more on markets related to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran in late February, Bubblemaps reported, raking in $1.2 million largely on the back of timely strike bets. 

“This cluster has been betting and winning on military markets since 2024 using multiple  accounts, some recently created, some older,” a representative for Bubblemaps told Decrypt, adding that the accounts “predicted multiple independent surprise military operations.” 

Polymarket accounts now named “djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg,” “Elonfax89678,” and “Skoobidoobnj,” have been identified by Bubblemaps as belonging to the profitable cluster, collectively notching around $611,000 on Tuesday upon Trump’s conditional ceasefire announcement.

Those profits largely came via markets that had the ceasefire taking place prior to April 7 and April 15. However, the accounts did not hit on all their wagers, collectively losing just shy of $50,000 on trades regarding a ceasefire prior to March 31. 

While the wager size is large, Bubblemaps says that it doesn’t necessarily point to the accounts having privileged information about the actions. 

“People can only wager the capital they have. We don’t know the income or net worth of individuals trading on Polymarket,” a representative for the firm told Decrypt. “We can only definitively say that these bets were large and well-timed.” 

The firm also stated publicly that it cannot say for certain the Polymarket accounts in question belong to insiders. 

“Their win rate on ceasefires is not perfect, and some positions, such as March 31, did not play out,” it posted on X. “Still, their track record of correctly calling surprise attacks on Iran suggests they may have access to better information than most.” 

Alleged insider trading on prediction markets has drawn tremendous scrutiny of late, particularly as it relates to potential insiders within the Trump administration. 

For example, recently California Governor Gavin Newsom alleged that “Trump’s Washington is riddled with ethical failures and insider profiteering,” ultimately signing an executive order that banned political appointees and those associated with them from profiting on prediction markets with inside information.

The prediction market platforms themselves have been active in trying to deter the act, as well. Polymarket and Kalshi both made moves last month to improve their response to insider trading behaviors, with the latter implementing preemptive screening that would proactively ban politicians from trading on markets related to them. 

In January, well-timed bets on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro triggered scrutiny when a trader profited more than $430,000 on Polymarket. Shortly thereafter, two Israelis were arrested and charged with using military secrets to trade and notch profits on the platform. 

Last month, Kalshi fined and suspended a video editor for YouTube personality MrBeast, who used inside information to profit on markets. The editor was later fired by Beast Industries, following an internal investigation.