Gold nears bear market as money supply signals divergence with bitcoin

Gold is approaching a technical bear market, down nearly 20% from its January all time high. Traditionally viewed as a store of value and hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, gold’s recent performance challenges that narrative. Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, prices have fallen around 10%, since the war started at the end of February.

Markets have also repriced the interest rate outlook, with cuts now largely pushed out and policy expected to remain restrictive through December 2026. At the same time, rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical risk, are adding upward pressure on inflation, reinforcing the higher for longer rate environment, a key headwind for gold.

While adjusting for M2 money supply, which includes cash, deposits, and other liquid forms of money, gold is trading near levels seen at major historical peaks in 1974 and 2011, when it was $200 and $1,800 per ounce, respectively. On this basis, gold appears to be consolidating at elevated levels, potentially forming a cyclical floor relative to global liquidity.

In contrast, bitcoin relative to M2 remains in a consolidation phase similar to 2024, while retesting its 2021 highs on a liquidity adjusted basis. Historically, each cycle has seen bitcoin move above prior peaks when adjusted for money supply. With bitcoin still about 40% below its October high, this may represent a typical consolidation range before further upside.

Gold has traded alongside bitcoin tick for tick since it broke down from $5,000 on Wednesday, showing elements of positive correlation after diverging from the crypto markets prior.