BTC price hits a wall at $75,000 while onchain energy markets run hot: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

While bitcoin’s BTC$73,907.94 price rise since the Iran conflict began more than two weeks ago is impressive, the performance of Hyperliquid is even more notable.

Users of the decentralized perpetuals exchange have traded millions in commodity futures, particularly those tied to oil, highlighting the utility of blockchain-based markets in price discovery when traditional markets are closed.

That trend looks set to continue as industry pundits grow increasingly bullish on commodities, especially energy.

“Energy contracts – particularly refined products such as heating oil and gasoline – exhibit stronger expected Sharpe ratios, tighter physical markets, and supportive term structures,” Prometheus Research said

The Iran conflict has already driven gains in commodity ETFs, and Mining.com predicts a lasting impact on key metals, including nickel and other critical minerals.

All this suggests onchain commodity markets could siphon capital away from bitcoin and various parts of the crypto market. Booming AI stocks supposedly did that in 2024-25, limiting gains in the largest cryptocurrency.

Another tail risk: Economists are predicting an increase in inflation due to the oil price rally, which could prompt central banks to proceed cautiously with interest-rate cuts, further weighing on risk assets. Remember, the Fed is due to announce its rate decision tomorrow.

So while BTC looks buoyant, rapid gains may not come easily. Prices briefly topped $75,000 earlier Tuesday on the back of short-covering in futures and options markets.

“When you pair that heavily hedged options market with the persistently negative perpetual funding rates we saw over the last couple of weeks, it became clear the market was heavily skewed — hedged, short, and under-owned,” Monarq Asset Management told CoinDesk.

The breakout, however, was short-lived. Prices slipped back below $74,000, dragging down the CoinDesk 20 Index and major tokens such as ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL). Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures fell, signaling renewed risk aversion in traditional markets. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
  • March 17: Lava Network (LAVA) to expand with 17 new chain integrations and nine new blockchain ecosystems.
• Macro
  • March 17, 10 a.m.: U.S. Pending Home Sales MoM for February (Prev. -0.8%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 17: CEA Industries (BNC), post-market, $0.69

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • March 17: Mantle (MNT) to host State of Mind Ep. 07, discussing CeDeFi milestones and DeFi strategies.
  • March 17: OKX to host an X Spaces session on agent states featuring representatives from Uniswap, Dune and Alchemy.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting on whether to allow registered users to customize the color of their avatar name tag, and to add a more accessible volume slider to the UI sidebar. Voting ends March 16 and 17.
  • Convex Finance is voting on Curve and Frax gauge weight allocations for the week of March 12, directing vlCVX voting power across hundreds of liquidity pools. It’s also voting on FXN gauge weight allocations for the same period. Voting ends March 17.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to finalize its 2026–2027 Multi-Sig Signers election, preserving the 5-of-9 threshold and setting quarterly signer compensation. Voting ends March 17.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is running Ballot 3 to elect seven of the remaining 10 nominees as Multi-Sig Signers, completing the nine-signer roster for the DAO Foundation wallet. Voting ends March 17.
  • Aura Finance is voting on Balancer gauge weight allocations for the week of March 12, directing vlAURA voting power across Balancer pools on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, Gnosis, Base, and Avalanche. Voting ends March 17.
  • ShapeShift DAO is voting on establishing and funding a new International UX Workstream for six months to maintain professional multilingual translations of the ShapeShift app and website. Voting ends March 17.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.28% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $73,668.91 (24hrs: +0.22%)
• ETH is down 1.25% at $2,307.46 (24hrs: +1.76%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.96% at 2,147.86 (24hrs: +0.75%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 2.81%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0054% (-5.9042% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.09% at 99.80
• Gold futures are up 0.03% at $5,003.80
• Silver futures are down 0.61% at $80.19
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 53,700.39
• Hang Seng closed up 0.13% at 25,868.54
• FTSE 100 is up 0.54% at 10,373.64
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.45% at 5,764.94
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.83% at 46,946.41
• S&P 500 closed up 1.01% at 6,699.38
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.22% at 22,374.18
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.03% at 32,876.65
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.32% at 3,607.58
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 7 bps at 4.22%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.61% at 6,745.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.66% at 24,839.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.59% at 47,261.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.06% (-0.17%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0313 (-0.39%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 935 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $32.42
• Total fees: 2.54 BTC / $187,439
• CME Futures Open Interest: 115,130 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 14.8 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.93%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily swings in the ether-bitcoin ratio in candlestick format since November.
• The ratio surged 5% Monday, breaking out of a prolonged trend of choppy price action.
• The so-called bullish breakout suggests potential for continued ether outperformance ahead.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $203.32 (+3.98%), +0.33% at $204.00 in pre-market
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $125.83 (+9.06%), +0.79% at $126.82
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.10 (+3.36%), unchanged
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.23 (–0.97%), +0.11% at $9.24
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.40 (+2.56%), +0.21% at $14.43
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (+2.91%), –0.41% at $16.90
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.02 (+2.66%), +0.50% at $10.07
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.32 (+3.90%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.45 (+5.68%), unchanged
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.62 (+8.19%), –1.29% at $39.11

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $147.52 (+5.62%), –0.83% at $146.3
• Strive (ASST): closed at $10.86 (+13.96%), unchanged
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $8.20 (+8.90%), +0.49% at $8.24
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.08 (–2.70%), +4.63% at $1.13
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.25 (+5.93%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $199.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $35.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.86 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 5.74 million

Source: Farside Investors

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