Bitcoin (BTC) climbs as Iran conflict tests crypto’s safe-haven case, says Bernstein

Bitcoin’s BTC$73,470.16 recent strength during geopolitical uncertainty reflects a fundamental shift in the asset’s ownership structure, according to Wall Street broker Bernstein.

The cryptocurrency climbed roughly 7% last week, with ether (ETH) gaining about 9%, outperforming gold and global equity indices as markets reacted to escalating global conflict. The broker said the performance highlights how institutional ownership is reshaping the market.

“We believe the combination of Strategy’s treasury model and ETFs have transformed bitcoin’s ownership structure,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in the Monday report.

Strategy, which the analysts described as acting like a “bitcoin central bank of last resort,” has continued buying through the downturn. The firm extended its streak of weekly purchases, acquiring about $1.57 billion worth of BTC, according to a Monday filing.

The company, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, bought 22,337 bitcoin at an average price of $70,194 each, bringing its total holdings to 761,068 BTC acquired at an average cost of $75,696 per coin.

Strategy has also expanded its preferred equity financing strategy through the STRC product, which offers investors high-yield income linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and has generated rising trading volumes. The additional liquidity helps fund more bitcoin purchases through at-the-market offerings.

Meanwhile, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have attracted about $2.1 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, bringing ETF ownership to roughly 6.1% of total bitcoin supply. The analysts said these vehicles are increasingly drawing allocations from wealth managers, pension funds and sovereign investors.

Retail investors have been net sellers in recent months, but long-term holders remain dominant. About 60% of bitcoin supply has not moved for more than a year, a signal that many investors continue to treat the asset as a long-term store of value, the report said.

Bitcoin’s recent outperformance during geopolitical stress has also revived debate about its role as “digital gold.” While the token lagged the precious metal for much of the past year, its gains during the latest bout of global uncertainty have prompted some analysts to argue the asset is beginning to behave more like a geopolitical hedge, though the comparison remains contested.

For equity investors, Bernstein added that Strategy (MSTR) remains a high-beta way to gain exposure to bitcoin’s upside, currently trading at about a 14% discount to its bitcoin net asset value on a basic share basis.

The largest cryptocurrency was trading 4.4% higher around $73,900 at publication time. Ether, the second-largest crypto by market capitalization was up 8.4% at $2,273.

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