BTC showing safe-haven signs, holding up as stocks tumble on macro fears

Safe-haven asset?

The action is volatile, but bitcoin BTC$71,563.44 for the moment is continuing to hold just above the $70,000 even as other risk assets sell off across the board.

Helping to send stocks lower, crude oil prices are up more than 10% and nearing $100 per barrel amid concerns about the Hormuz Strait — a key shipping route for oil tankers.

“Stopping Iran is of more concern to me than oil prices,” said President Trump on Thursday. Meanwhile, in his first public statement since being appointed Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed.

“It’s becoming clear to everyone that the Strait is far from under control and potentially impossible to control without severe concessions to Iran, boots on the ground, or huge military risks,” said Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital. “Things get dicey from here and when backs are up against the wall, volatility increases.”

Nearing the noon hour on the east coast, the Nasdaq is near session lows, down 1.6% and S&P 500 is off 1.2%.

Wiped from the front pages thanks to Iran, but still of major concern are continuing worries about a collapse in private credit. Morgan Stanley (MS) was the latest in a growing series of financial giants to cap redemptions — this one at its $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund. Shares of Morgan Stanley were down 4% on Thursday, leading declines in the financial sector. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo were lower by closer to 3%.

In private equity, KKR, Apollo Global, and Ares Management were all sporting 3% to 4% declines.

Gold, meanwhile, was down 0.6% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was higher by three basis points to 4.23%.

Oil drives markets

Oil has become the main driver of crypto prices, according to CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill. “The dominant variable in global asset pricing is no longer the labour market. It is oil — and the geopolitical crisis underpinning it,” he said in a note. He argued that the government’s most recent U.S. payroll report, which missed expectations, would’ve normally pushed markets to price in faster rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but the reaction was muted as investors instead focused on rising energy costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

Despite the pullback on Thursday, bitcoin has remained relatively resilient despite rising geopolitical tensions and broader market uncertainty, holding near the $70,000 level even as investors reassess global risks.

The reason could be that large investors are increasingly seeking more than simple exposure to bitcoin’s price, according to Dom Harz, co-founder of layer-2 blockchain BOB. “Institutions want more than exposure to bitcoin and are increasingly looking for the infrastructure designed to unlock Bitcoin’s financial utility,” he wrote in a note, pointing to growing interest in bitcoin-based financial applications that could allow users to spend, save and earn using the network.