Bitcoin ‘Bull Trap’ Forming As Bear Market Middle Stage Approaches: Analyst

Bitcoin could experience a short-term rally that catches investors off guard before the broader downtrend resumes, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo.

“Bull trap forming,” Woo said in an X post on Saturday, referring to a fake breakout suggesting that the market is entering a sustained uptrend. He added that it may last “out to [the] end of April.”

Woo said his outlook is based on liquidity conditions rather than price levels. “If capital comes back in force with the right type of long-term investors, then I’ll happily change my views,” Woo said.

Bitcoin is “solidly” in the middle of a bear market

From a long-range liquidity perspective, Woo said Bitcoin (BTC) is “solidly in the middle of its bear market.” “Typically, after fast downward flushes like we have had, BTC likes to go sideways and mount a rally where resistance is tested,” Woo said. 

Bitcoin has fallen approximately 46.82% since reaching its October all-time highs of $126,000, trading at $67,012 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

Woo said that this level isn’t the bottom for Bitcoin and the asset may see further downside. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment shared a similar view on Saturday, pointing to whales aggressively selling while retail investors buy below $70,000.

“When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over,” Santiment said.

Bitcoin investor flows have been in “consistent recovery”

Woo said that despite Bitcoin failing to hold the “mid-70s” range after it soared to $74,000 on Wednesday, investor flows have been in “consistent recovery” since the middle of February.

Related: Bitcoin relief rally hits wall as spot ETFs log $228M in outflows

Woo isn’t the only analyst who thinks Bitcoin is in a bear market. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen recently told Magazine that 2026 is a “bear market year” for Bitcoin and unlikely to bring new all-time highs.

On-chain analytics company CryptoQuant said on Thursday that “Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally.”

It comes after the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, one of the most widely used gauges of crypto investor sentiment, fell back to “extreme fear” levels after briefly recovering on Wednesday.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen