A simple breakdown of Strategy’s Bitcoin plan and what could shape future sales

Key takeaways

• Strategy is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with roughly 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet.

• The company’s model hinges on raising capital and converting it into BTC while keeping its market-cap-to-Bitcoin value (mNAV) above 1.

• CEO Phong Le has described any Bitcoin sale as a “last resort” option that would be considered only if mNAV drops below 1 and access to new capital meaningfully deteriorates.

• Even if Strategy chooses to sell a portion of its holdings, Bitcoin trades in a market with tens of billions in daily volume, and any sale would likely be targeted rather than a full exit.

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has spent the past five years turning itself into what it calls “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company.”

As of early December 2025, it held almost 650,000 Bitcoin (BTC), which is more than 3% of the 21 million supply and by far the largest stack owned by a public company.

For many traditional investors, Strategy’s stock became a kind of leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. Instead of buying BTC directly, they chose the stock because the company raises capital and converts it into Bitcoin.

The current debate comes from CEO Phong Le’s recent comments that a Bitcoin sale is possible under very specific conditions. Headlines often focus on the word “sell,” but the company presents this as risk management for extreme stress, not a shift in its long-term Bitcoin thesis.

This article looks at how the plan works and what could trigger sales, helping readers interpret future news without panic or fear of missing out (FOMO). This guide is purely informational and not investment advice.

Did you know? Recent estimates suggest that institutions now hold nearly 20% of all mined Bitcoin.

How Strategy’s Bitcoin engine actually works

Day to day, Strategy runs a relatively simple loop in financial terms. The company:

1. Raises capital in traditional markets through common-stock at-the-market programs, multiple series of perpetual preferred stock, such as STRK and STRF, and occasional convertible debt.

2. Uses much of that capital to buy more Bitcoin, which it treats as its primary treasury reserve asset.

3. Tracks a set of metrics to judge whether this remains sustainable and accretive for shareholders.

Two of those metrics matter here:

• Bitcoin per share (BPS): How much BTC effectively sits behind each fully diluted share. Strategy publishes this as a key performance indicator.

• Market-cap-to-net-asset-value (nNAV): The ratio between Strategy’s total market value and the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. If mNAV is above 1, the stock trades at a premium to its BTC.

When the company trades at a healthy premium, it can raise new equity or preferred stock with less dilution and keep growing its Bitcoin stack. That base case — where Strategy raises at a premium, buys more BTC and grows BPS — is still the model that management says it is pursuing.

The “last resort” sale trigger

The new element is a clearly stated kill switch for that model.

In recent interviews, Le explained that Strategy would consider selling some Bitcoin only if two conditions are met at the same time:

1. mNAV falls below 1, which means the company’s market cap drops to or below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

2. Access to fresh capital dries up — e.g., if investors are no longer willing to buy its equity or preferred stock at viable terms.

He described selling BTC in that scenario as a “last resort” toolkit option to meet obligations such as preferred dividends, not as a standing plan to sell the treasury.

Put simply:

If the stock trades at or below the value of the BTC and the company cannot refinance itself, then selling a slice of BTC becomes the least bad way to protect the overall structure.

What could realistically push Strategy toward that line

Several moving parts would have to line up before the “last resort” switch is even considered.

Macro and Bitcoin price

Bitcoin has already pulled back sharply from its October all-time high near $126,000 to the mid-$80,000s, a drop of roughly 30%. Deeper or more prolonged drawdowns compress the value of Strategy’s BTC stack and tend to pressure its stock at the same time.

Equity performance and mNAV

Strategy’s market cap premium to its Bitcoin has already narrowed after a 30%-60% slide in the stock from earlier highs. In mid-November, the company briefly traded around or even below the spot value of its holdings, which suggested mNAV near 1.

Funding conditions

The business rests on being able to issue new common and perpetual preferred shares through existing shelf registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. If those offerings slowed sharply or if investors demanded much higher yields, that would signal stress on the funding side.

Internal obligations

Strategy has sizeable annual commitments in the form of preferred dividends and debt service. Analysts put preferred dividend obligations in the hundreds of millions of dollars per year.

Management still describes itself as a long-term Bitcoin accumulator, and the scenarios above describe a severe stress environment.

Did you know? Onchain forensics suggest that 3 million-4 million BTC is likely lost forever in dead wallets, which means a significant portion of the supply will never return to the market.

What a Strategy sale would and would not mean for Bitcoin

Given that Strategy holds 650,000 BTC, any shift from “never sell” to “might sell under stress” naturally catches traders’ attention.

Context is important, though:

• Market size: Daily spot and derivatives volume in Bitcoin regularly runs into tens of billions of dollars. At the same time, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen single-day inflows and outflows measured in billions. A controlled sale of a fraction of Strategy’s holdings, even if meaningful, would enter a very large and liquid market.

• Likely scale and pace: Based on Le’s own comments, any sale in a stress scenario would be targeted and partial, aimed at meeting obligations or maintaining the capital structure rather than exiting Bitcoin.

• Pricing in advance: Markets often start incorporating these possibilities as soon as they are disclosed. The recent pullback in both BTC and Strategy’s stock, along with debate over mNAV, is an example of that process.

It is important to note that a conditional last resort sale framework is not the same thing as an announcement that large BTC sales are imminent.

Did you know? In Q3 2025, average daily crypto spot trading volume was about $155 billion, and another $14 billion in notional crypto derivatives traded daily on CME alone.

How to follow Strategy’s next moves

For readers who want to track this story without reacting to every headline or meme, several observable indicators can help readers understand the situation more clearly:

Start with primary sources.

• US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.

• Strategy’s press releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize recent buys and total holdings.

Watch the core metrics.

• US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.

• Strategy’s press releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize recent buys and total holdings.

• Social media activity often reflects sentiment rather than data. “Green dot” posts, laser eyes memes and doomsday threads can be useful for reading mood, but it is worth cross-checking any claim about forced selling or insolvency against filings and numbers.

N.B. Financial situations, time horizons and risk tolerance vary by individual. This information is general in nature and should not be interpreted as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Readers should consider consulting a qualified financial professional for guidance that fits their circumstances.