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Bitcoin briefly lost all of its gains this year after the crypto markets bled over the weekend, despite the US government reopening on Thursday, which was expected to provide much-needed relief to the markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, down 25% from its all-time high in October. It started the year at $93,507.
It has since rebounded to around $94,209, CoinGecko data shows.
This year was tipped to be a strong one for the crypto markets after US President Donald Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20 and formed the most pro-crypto administration to date, which has followed through on most of his promises.
Regulatory momentum under the Trump administration has been accompanied by an explosion in corporate Bitcoin treasury adoption and more inflows into the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
However, Trump’s war on tariffs and the US government shutdown — the latter of which ended on Thursday after a record 43 days — have contributed to multiple double-digit Bitcoin price pullbacks throughout the year.
Bitcoin whales have also slowed price rallies
Another key catalyst seen behind Bitcoin’s price slump has been OG Bitcoiners and whales selling off portions of their holdings, compressing upside even in light of positive industry developments.
However, Glassnode analysts last week said the “OG Whales Dumping” Bitcoin narrative isn’t as strong as it is made out to be, explaining that it is “normal bull-market behaviour,” particularly during the late stages of bull runs.
“This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus of whales.”
Related: Peter Schiff calls Strategy’s model ‘fraud,’ challenges Saylor to debate
Bitcoin isn’t alone — Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are down 7.95% and 28.3% respectively from the start of 2025, while most altcoins have been hit even harder.
Four-year cycle thesis still not in effect, analyst says
Industry analysts are also speculating whether the four-year cycle thesis remains in effect, despite the crypto markets having far more institutional and regulatory backing compared to earlier market cycles.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan is one of a few analysts who believe Bitcoin will boom in 2026 due to the “debasement trade” thesis playing out, while the broader markets will benefit from increased adoption in stablecoin, tokenization and decentralized finance.
“I think the underlying fundamentals are just so sound,” Hougan said last Wednesday.
“I just think those are too big to keep down. So I think 2026 will be a good year.”
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