‘Extremely Bearish:’ Is $91K New Bitcoin Price Target?

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin hovered around $101,000 as the Friday trading day began in Hong Kong, as on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that market conditions have turned “extremely bearish.”

In its latest weekly report, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s drop under the 365-day moving average of $102,000 marked the loss of a key technical and psychological support that previously defined the bottom of this bull cycle. The firm’s Bull Score Index — a composite measure of market strength — has fallen to zero for the first time since June 2022, a signal last seen before the previous bear market.

CryptoQuant added that traders’ on-chain realized price bands now point to potential downside targets near $72,000 if BTC fails to recover above $100,000 soon.

It also identified the $91,000 region, based on Metcalfe’s network valuation model, as the next structural support level. “Failure to reclaim the 365-day moving average quickly could trigger a much larger correction,” the firm said.

The report follows weeks of weakening fundamentals, including falling inflows, reduced network activity, and a flattening of key on-chain valuation metrics. CryptoQuant analysts said the setup now resembles late 2021, when a similar break below the long-term average confirmed the start of a prolonged drawdown.

Still, this view is not universal.

In a report from earlier this week titled “Defending $100K,” Glassnode wrote that the market remains “cautious, oversold, but not yet deeply capitulated,” with 71% of supply still in profit and unrealized losses contained to just 3.1% of market cap.

While long-term holders are selling and ETF outflows continue, Glassnode says the current phase is a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin slipped as low as $100,420 overnight before recovering slightly to trade around $101,000 in Asia hours, extending a weeklong decline that’s wiped nearly 7% from its value.

ETH: Ether fell to an intraday low of $3,285 before edging back to $3,310 in early Asia trading, down about 2% on the day and roughly 13% over the past week.

Gold: Gold rebounded toward the $4,000 level on Wednesday, rising as much as 1.5% to $3,989.53 an ounce as investors sought safety amid a global equities sell-off, even as strong U.S. jobs data tempered expectations for further Fed rate cuts.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Friday, tracking Wall Street’s tech-led sell-off as AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir slumped, while investors awaited China’s trade data expected to show weaker exports and imports.

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