Stablecoin Inflows Rise Before Fed Rate Decision: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$113,179.25 is hovering around $113,000 after dropping 1.4% in 24 hours, while the broader crypto market, measured via the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, fell 2%.

The declines come amid a rotation into stablecoins ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today. A 25 basis point interest-rate cut is a near certainty. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.9% chance of it happening, while traders on Polymarket put the odds at 98.1%.

Traders are also on the lookout for signs the Fed is set to slow its balance sheet runoff, which would further ease financial conditions and be a potential boon for risk assets.

Trading activity has thinned. Liquidity on centralized exchanges has dropped sharply, with order book depth sitting at just 40% of pre-liquidation levels, according to Foresight Ventures, as traders rotate into stablecoins.

“Traders are rotating into USD stablecoins and concentrating liquidity in deep order books,” OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin told CoinDesk. According to Wintermute, stablecoin supply is now rising again for the first time since September, which shows “macro tailwinds are beginning to translate into fresh inflows.”

Similarly, perpetual futures funding rates are now positive again for most major tokens, while open interest for BTC and ETH is “rebuilding at a measured pace.”

“While Uptober had a bit of a false start, macro tailwinds, cooling inflation, ‘stabilizing’ geopolitical tension, and a dovish FED are setting the stage for a supportive rest of the year, which historically (Q4) has been the strongest for bitcoin,” wrote Wintermute OTC desk strategist Jasper De Maere.

Positioning and macro tailwinds seem to suggest a breakout is looming, a position various analysts appear to be taking. Nevertheless, President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week could boost uncertainty. Stay alert!

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
  • Oct. 29: Grayscale’s Solana Trust converts to a spot ETF listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker GSOL.
• Macro
  • Oct. 29, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision. Policy Interest Rate (Prev. 2.5%). Press conference starts 45 minutes later; watch live.
  • Oct. 29, 2 p.m.: Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. Fed Funds Rate Target Range Est. 3.75%-4%. Press conference starts 30 minutes later; watch live.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Lisk DAO is voting on a 4M LSK proposal to start a Lisk DAO Fund, replacing grants with investments in top Lisk startups. Voting ends Oct. 29.
  • ZKsync DAO is voting on allocating 33M ZK (~$1.65M) to the ZKsync Association to maintain and enhance governance infrastructure through 2026. Voting ends Oct. 29.
  • ENS DAO is voting to fund ENS Contract Naming Season, a six-month program led by Enscribe with 75K USDC and 10K ENS to promote smart contract naming, boost ENS adoption and improve Ethereum UX. Voting ends Oct. 29.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• The altcoin market began to show signs of strength on Wednesday, with traders rotating into higher-beta tokens ahead of potential policy headlines.
• The TRUMP token, touted by President Donald Trump in January, led the move, rallying as optimism grew that the U.S. and China are closing in on a trade agreement.
• AERO$0.9903 also rose, buoyed by steady activity across Base-based DeFi protocols. The token added 7.2% as it notched its highest level since the start of the month.
• The market still showed a preference for bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator remaining at 26/100.
• The altcoin gains were confined to memecoins and DeFi tokens, while larger tokens traded in tight ranges.
• ENA$0.4648 and hedera (HBAR) both gave back much of their gains on Wednesday, with the former down by 6.9% in 24 hours while hedera dropped by 4.5% despite a spot HBAR ETF going live on the NYSE on Tuesday.

Derivatives Positioning

• The BTC futures market is holding steady, with open interest (OI) at $26.8 billion.
• Funding rates, however, are highly divergent: Deribit shows an aggressive spike to 24.64% annualized, signaling strong demand for long positions, while OKX dipped to -3%, where shorts are being paid.
• This mix of sustained high OI and polarized funding rates indicates elevated near-term market volatility and uncertainty, disrupting the previously uniform bullish sentiment.
• In the options market, bitcoin is showing a strong surge in bullish conviction. The implied volatility (IV) term structure is displaying a slight near-term backwardation (downward slope) before normalizing into long-term contango (upward slope).
• Short-term bullish sentiment has increased significantly, with the 250-delta skew at 10% for the one-week expiry, meaning traders are paying a substantial premium for call options. This is further validated by the 24-hour put-call volume, whic is strongly in favor of calls (60%).
• Coinglass data shows $514 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 69-31 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($155 million), BTC ($114 million) and SOL ($57 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
• The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $114,350 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.23% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $113,094.99 (24hrs: -1.34%)
• ETH is up 0.53% at $4,003 (24hrs: -2.87%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.72% at 3,755.92 (24hrs: -2.03%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 4 bps at 2.85%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0036% (3.9431% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.21% at 98.88
• Gold futures are up 1.35% at $4,036.70
• Silver futures are up 2.21% at $48.37
• Nikkei 225 closed up 2.17% at 51,307.65
• Hang Seng closed down 0.33% at 26,346.14
• FTSE is up 0.47% at 9,742.64
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.27% at 5,719.98
• DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.34% at 47,706.37
• S&P 500 closed up 0.23% at 6,890.89
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.80% at 23,827.49
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.48% at 30,419.68
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.86% at 2,979.82
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.8 bps at 3.991%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,934.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.26% at 26,232.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.27% at 47,768.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.84% (-0.24%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03537 (0.31%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,137 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $48.69
• Total fees: 2.94 BTC / $335,834
• CME Futures Open Interest: 143,590 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 26.9 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.58%

Technical Analysis

• The Total Altcoin Market Cap (excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies) to bitcoin ratio is resting on a critical, long-term weekly support.
• The lack of a clear revival signal makes this a highly precarious position because a breakdown below this level would imply significant further downside and market pain for the broader altcoin sector.
• With the next resistance 36% away and the next support -27% below, the current risk/reward is unfavorable for broad altcoin exposure versus bitcoin.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $355.22 (-1.72%), +0.28% at $356.20 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $136.11 (-5.01%), unchanged in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.29 (-8.04%), +0.4% at $37.44
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $54.01 (-4.08%), +0.54% at $54.30
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.88 (-3.48%), +0.58% at $18.99
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.56 (-6.28%), +1.37% at $21.85
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $20.09 (+1.11%), +1.54% at $20.40
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.15 (-5.2%), +1.51% at $19.44
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $59.48 (-2.24%), +0.79% at $59.95
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $25.01 (-3.88%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $284.64 (-3.72%), +0.31% at $285.51
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $27.22 (-13.42%), +2.87% at $28
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.74 (-3.98%), -1.38% at $13.55
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.63 (-6.28%), +1.73% at $4.71
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.93 (-7.66%), +1.04% at $1.95

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $202.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $62.3 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.36 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $246 million
• Cumulative net flows: $14.75 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.75 million

Source: Farside Investors

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