After CZ’s Pardon, Odds Rise for Sam Bankman-Fried’s Second Chance

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

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Will Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, be pardoned?

Bettors on Polymarket say its a long shot, but odds have jumped by 5 percentage points to 12% after Binance founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao was pardoned by Trump Thursday U.S. time. Over on Kalshi, there was a larger jump, where a contract asking about a SBF pardon rose by 9 percentage points to 16%.

Earlier this year SBF went on a media charm offensive with an appearance on Tucker Carlson’s podcast as part of a broader effort to reshape his public image and lay the groundwork for a potential presidential pardon.

The former FTX CEO has leaned into conservative media and claims he was punished for backing Republicans, while his parents quietly court allies in President Donald Trump’s circle in hopes of winning clemency for their son’s 25-year prison sentence.

Even though the odds that SBF will get a pardon are currently low, Polymarket traders were caught off guard by Trump’s decision to pardon CZ.

For most of the contract’s life, the odds of a pardon hovered between 20% and 40%, signaling broad skepticism that any leniency was coming.

For as accurate as research shows prediction markets, sometimes they miss things by underpricing odds of outcomes. Maybe they’re doing the same with SBF, because a surprise pardon would be the kind of finale twist The Altruists – the upcoming Netflix series about the collapse of FTX – writers would cut for being too far-fetched, right up until it happens.

Market Movement:

BTC: Bitcoin rose 2.7% to around $110,700 on Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday’s drop as markets rallied ahead of Friday’s September inflation report.

ETH: Ether is trading near $3,850 as analysts point to a potential Wyckoff re-accumulation phase, with rising institutional demand fueling speculation of an $8,000–$10,000 breakout later this cycle.

Gold: Gold is trading around $4,126, up nearly 50% this year after hitting a record above $4,000, as geopolitical tensions, Fed policy uncertainty, and strong central bank buying drive demand, though Morgan Stanley warns high prices could slow jewelry and reserve purchases even as it raises its 2026 forecast to $4,400.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.78%, after the White House confirmed Trump-Xi talks next week.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Fireblocks buys crypto authentication startup Dynamic, completing its offerings from ‘custody to consumer’ (The Block)
• Alt5 Sigma Suspends CEO Peter Tassiopoulos, Appoints Jonathan Hugh as Interim Leader (CoinDesk)
• Trezor Unveils ‘Quantum-Ready’ Safe 7 Hardware Wallet (Decrypt)