$100K Bitcoin Price Depends on Weeks Of Steady BTC ETF Inflows

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally above $97,000 was supported by surging inflows to the spot Bitcoin ETFs, and one analyst says the demand must continue for BTC to break through the $100,000 barrier.

Key takeaways:

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.8 billion in weekly net inflows, the strongest since early October 2025.

• Total net assets under spot ETFs remain 24% below their Q4 2025 peak.

• Long-term supply-demand dynamics continue to favor ETFs, as institutional investor access is expected to expand in 2026.

Bitcoin ETF are only one part of the picture

US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $1.8 billion in net inflows this week, marking the largest weekly intake since the first week of October 2025. The move comes as BTC again tests resistance near the $98,000 level, signaling renewed institutional interest.

Despite the rebound, ETF positioning remains well below previous highs. The total net assets under management (AUM) across US spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked at $164.5 billion in Q4 2025 but currently stands near $125 billion. This represents a drawdown of roughly 24%, underscoring that recent inflows have only partially offset earlier outflows.

According to the Bitcoin macro intelligence newsletter Ecoinometrics, short bursts of ETF inflows have repeatedly led to brief price bounces followed by fading momentum.

“Bitcoin doesn’t need a few good days. It needs a few good weeks,” the newsletter said, noting that cumulative ETF flows remain in a deep drawdown. A handful of positive sessions barely registers against prolonged periods of selling. Until inflows cluster over multiple weeks, rallies are more likely to stabilize the price than restart a durable uptrend.

Related: Bitcoin whale balances see 21% bounce after fastest sell-off since 2023 ends

BTC supply-demand imbalance favors ETFs in the long-run

From a structural standpoint, spot ETF demand continues to outpace new Bitcoin supply. According to Bitwise, since US Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they have purchased about 710,777 BTC, while the network has produced just 363,047 BTC over the same period. Bitcoin’s price has risen about 94% since then, reflecting that imbalance. 

Looking ahead, new supply is relatively predictable, while demand could expand further as institutional investor access to Bitcoin broadens. Notably, 2026 could be the year most institutional allocators continue to broadly access crypto ETFs, as Bitwise predicted,

“ETFs will purchase more than 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin as institutional demand accelerates.”

In 2025, Bitwise forecast that Bitcoin inflows into publicly listed companies building BTC treasuries, sovereign wealth funds, ETFs and nation-states could reach $300 billion in 2026.

The company highlighted that US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $36.2 billion in net inflows in their inception year, reaching $125 billion in AUM far faster than SPDR Gold Shares did in its early growth phase.

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