Gold’s Next Breakout Could Ignite the Bull Run’s Final Phase

Gold, the world’s first-ever $30 trillion asset, has exceeded expectations in 2025, rising more than 60% year-to-date to trading at approximately $4,340 per ounce.

One way to assess gold’s strength is by measuring its performance relative to the M2 money supply. (M2 refers to a broad measure of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, savings accounts).

Since its 2022 bottom, gold has gained roughly 150% against M2. However, it is now approaching historically significant levels last seen during the peaks of 2011 and 1974. This could suggest that the current rally is nearing a top.

On the other hand, it may also indicate that the bull market has much further to run. For example, during the 1970’s stagflationary cycle, gold surged an additional 180% against the M2 money supply before reaching its ultimate peak.

Gold vs Bitcoin Performance

Gold’s outperformance extends beyond the money supply. The gold/bitcoin ratio is now up around 50% year-to-date.

Bitcoin is now priced at approximately 24 ounces per BTC, around 40% below its all-time high set in December 2024. Additionally, bitcoin’s total market capitalization now represents about 7% of gold’s total market value.

Bitcoin is approaching a market cap of $2 trillion, which corresponds to a price level of roughly $100,000. This price also aligns closely with its 365-day moving average (365DMA).

The 365DMA calculates the average closing price of an asset over the previous 365 days, helping to identify long-term trends and potential support or resistance levels.